Solarletter #8_EN - 10th Solar Forum organized by the Spanish Photovoltaic Union
Also: When Reality Escapes the Screen, Google launches Solar API and LONGi pours cold water on module overcapacity
Please note that text below has been translated from the spanish version by using AI
Hello everyone and welcome back to Solarletter. My name is Imanol Matanza, and I aim to share with you the latest news, technological advancements, and trends in the field of photovoltaic energy. Through Solarletter, I hope to provide you with valuable information, market analysis, state-of-the-art updates, and practical tips that will help you stay informed about the latest developments in the photovoltaic industry.
I am always open to suggestions, questions, and comments, so please feel free to contact me. If you like it, don't hesitate to subscribe and share!
Now, let's go with the news for this week!
10th Solar Forum organized by the Spanish Photovoltaic Union
Perhaps Spanish readers are already familiar with the Spanish Photovoltaic Union (UNEF) and may not need introductions. However, for those of you reading from other markets who might not be acquainted with it, here is a brief summary:
Founded in 2012, UNEF is the leading association of the photovoltaic solar sector in Spain, with over 800 associated companies. It brings together and serves as a meeting point for producers, installers, engineers, manufacturers, distributors, and any company related to the sector. In fact, they claim to represent 90% of the market.
On the 4th and 5th of October, they organized the tenth edition of the Solar Forum in Madrid, with the participation of experts in sustainability, project regulation, and financing, as well as representatives from national and international institutions.
PV Magazine Spain's editor, Pilar Sánchez Molina, provides us with a perfect summary of the event in her article:
Teresa Ribera, the Minister for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge in Spain, expects the solar sector to continue being a source of innovation and industrial employment on the path to decarbonization. She also emphasized the need for a reform of the electricity market, although Pilar comments that this issue does not seem to be among the main concerns of the Forum attendees, while the widespread interpretation of her speech about extending the deadline of the 30 GW photovoltaic connection by July 2025 did create some buzz.
Domestic self-consumption seems to have reduced its deployment by 50-60% compared to 2022, with a total installation of 1.7-1.8 GW. This is due to a relaxation in the maximum prices in electricity and the loss of purchasing power for families. José Carlos Díaz Lacaci, the General Director of Powen, commented that "There will be a natural selection in the sector, only the best will remain."
Joan Groizard, the General Director of IDAE, is confident that storage for self-consumption will eventually become more common, even though it is not yet "normal." For this, the regulation should recognize its value, allowing for not "wasting energy," not over-dimensioning electrical infrastructure, etc...
Franc Comino, the General Director of Sonnen Ibérica, also emphasized the need for battery regulation to truly penetrate the market.
Miriam Bueno, Deputy Director General of the Ministry, mentioned that there are 15 GW of standalone storage requests and 1.5 GW in hybrid systems with renewables. Remember that in the Solarletter #4 edition, we showed the predictions of the PNIEC up to 2030, where they propose 18.5 GW of storage, reaching 22 GW with thermo-electric storage.
Javier Revuelta, Senior Principal at Afry Management Consulting, also spoke about storage and whether the government will initiate capacity tenders or not, as photovoltaic power is expected to continue increasing, and somewhere there will be a need to harness all that energy.
The president of Red Eléctrica, Beatriz Corredor, urged the government to reform the Electricity Sector Law to enable the development of the transmission network at a faster pace.
Certainly, the strong expansion of renewables has caught everyone off guard; none of the estimates could anticipate this strong deployment of wind, and especially photovoltaic power. Therefore, storage (forgive the expression) has caught them with their pants down.
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When Reality Escapes the Screen
A couple of weeks ago, a post by Alejandro Diego Rosell caught my attention. As mentioned earlier, the strong penetration of photovoltaics has caught everyone by surprise, including the International Energy Agency (IEA). Below, I show you a graph by Auke Hoekstra, displaying the IEA's forecasts for annual installed capacity from 2002 to 2017.
For 2017, they predicted an installation of 75 GW and did not expect the pace to increase in the following years. The reality is that in 2022, 252 GW were installed, and it is estimated that 392 GW will be reached in 2023! Alejando edited the graph to include this data, and the truth is that it is spectacular.
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Google launches Solar API
Google has launched a new platform within Google Maps aimed at the photovoltaic market. Solar API aims to democratize access to solar data, particularly for residential and smaller rooftops. This API provides comprehensive data layers that could significantly streamline initial assessments and consumer engagement.
The Solar API offers several options to understand the solar potential on the rooftop of a specific address. Two of these features are:
"Building Insights" provides details about the location, dimensions, and solar potential of a building. It includes information such as roof size and slope, as well as energy production estimates. This information can be used to assess solar energy potential and can be leveraged by professionals to explore and compare different solar configurations.
"Data Layers" provides more detailed information, including shading that will affect system performance and a digital model of the roof that can facilitate the detailed placement and arrangement of modules. This information can be used by solar installers to create proposals.
Certainly, it is a great initiative to democratize solar irradiation data for individuals and small businesses that may not have the financial capacity to acquire other tools.
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LONGi pours cold water on module overcapacity
In the fourth piece of news, we return to the photovoltaic module manufacturing market. As discussed in Solarletter #6, the module prices had been decreasing for five consecutive months, accumulating a 25% drop. Chinese companies have been accused of "dumping" panels in Europe, leading to difficulties for domestic manufacturers. A recent estimate indicated that up to 80 GW of stockpiles have accumulated.
Gulnara Abdullina, the President of LONGi in Europe, has come out to dismiss such claims as "baseless rumors" following discussions between LONGi and other major module manufacturers. According to her, 78 GW of solar modules were imported to the EU from China in the first eight months of 2023, 17 GW more compared to the 61 GW in the previous period. However, she asserts that these modules have not only been imported but also installed.
There is a belief that the problem may be due to large orders from major local distributors for distributed generation installations, namely private and industrial self-consumption. This is because modules for large-scale or "Utility Scale" projects are typically produced on demand.
According to Edurne Zoco, Executive Director of Clean Energy Technology at Commodity Insights, photovoltaic equipment distributors saw their stocks decrease and placed "massive orders" to ensure swift deliveries to residential and commercial customers. However, these companies did not realize that total stocks were filling up faster than the installation rate.
We will have to observe the price trends, but some voices in Europe are calling for the protection and subsidization of local manufacturers to prevent their closure. What do you think? Should European companies be protected or subsidized with public funds? Feel free to respond to this email! I would be delighted to hear your opinions.
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Edition´s microtip
For most of you, it is probably already known, but for those of you who are new to this field, it is sure to be surprising (at least to me, it seemed like an incredible idea/solution).
Generally, rooftop modules are connected in a daisy chain, meaning the modules in the same string are connected one after another. However, this time, I am here to talk about Leap Frog. It is a connection that involves connecting the odd-numbered modules to each other, skipping the even ones. When it reaches the middle module of the string (electrically speaking), it reverses back, connecting the even-numbered modules. I am sure many of you are scratching your heads right now, so I will leave an example image here:
This solution can obviously only be used for modules that have long enough cables to allow it, but the advantages are several:
Saving on DC cables: Not needing to bring the positive or negative back results in an economic saving due to having less cable to pull and purchase.
Reduced DC losses: With less DC cable, the voltage drop will be lower, thus reducing losses.
Reduced inductions: Eliminating possible inductions in the rest of the cables that can worsen the inverter's performance by not having the coils that are sometimes present in a daisy chain connection and by having the current flowing close to the return.
Starting and ending on the same side: Having the positive and negative of the string in the same location generally facilitates the cable run to the inverter.
However, module manufacturers are not oblivious to these cost-saving measures, and many charge extra for producing longer cables. Additionally, newer modules often have the junction boxes on the left and right rather than in the middle, making the return more challenging (unless the modules are flipped 180 degrees).
That concludes the edition. I hope you enjoyed and it made your coffee break, public transportation ride, or nap more enjoyable. If you have any suggestions, recommendations, or comments, feel free to reply to this email.
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Sunny Regards!