Solarletter #17_EN - The Threat of Curtailment: A Danger for Photovoltaics in Greece
Also: Batteries Are Making Strong Advances in California, Battle of Regulations: IRA vs. NZIA and Step Back in Romania by Two Chinese Module Manufacturers
Please note that text below has been translated from the spanish version by using AI
Hello everyone and welcome back to Solarletter. My name is Imanol Matanza, and I aim to share with you the latest news, technological advancements, and trends in the field of photovoltaic energy. Through Solarletter, I hope to provide you with valuable information, market analysis, state-of-the-art updates, and practical tips that will help you stay informed about the latest developments in the photovoltaic industry.
I am always open to suggestions, questions, and comments, so please feel free to contact me. If you like it, don't hesitate to subscribe and share!
Alright, let us go with a couple of interesting pieces of news!
The Threat of Curtailment: A Danger for Photovoltaics in Greece
If in Solarletter #16 we mentioned that the excess of photovoltaic power in Spain was already becoming noticeable, this time we turn to Greece. A country with similar characteristics to Spain, not only in lifestyle but also in terms of weather conditions (at least in comparison to the south and the Mediterranean region; in the north, we will have to wait for the effects of climate change, I guess).
However, in Greece, we encounter another problem besides the low pool prices during solar hours: grid saturation. Not only can electricity marketers "turn off" the park for economic reasons, but in Greece, grid operators are also now involved.
Breaking a new installation record in 2023, a total of 1.59 GW were connected to the grid last year, adding up to a total of 7.1 GW (pv-magazine). According to the most recent data I could find, the highest consumption peak in Greece occurred in August 2021, reaching 9.4 GW (KMPG). A quick calculation shows that the photovoltaic capacity in Greece is around 75% of the national peak capacity.
On the other hand, by the end of 2023, Spain had an installed photovoltaic capacity of 25.55 GW (Renewables Now). Considering that the peak power in the last five years has been around 38-40 GW (REE), we are talking about Spain reaching 65%. In this quick analysis, the capacity of electrical interconnections with other countries has not been taken into account (although, in this case, both countries again share similar characteristics).
In his article, Ilias Tsagas mentions that the grid operator IPTO had to disconnect all renewable generation connected to the transmission grid on May 5. A special day in Greece, as they celebrate their Orthodox Easter week, hence the low demand, but in addition, IPTO had to ask the distributor HEDNO to disconnect 1 GW of photovoltaic power.
Pandelis Biskas, professor at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, had already warned in April at the annual assembly of the solar producers' association Pospief, based in Thessaloniki. Biskas told investors that from March 1 to April 13, IPTO had planned a curtailment of 220 GWh, around 4% of the country's national green electricity production during this period. For comparison, in 2023, only 228 GWh needed to be "dumped."
Biskas also predicts that by 2030, this percentage will rise to 15%.
Adding to this is the problem that the distributor HEDNO cannot simply reduce the production of the installation; it is all or nothing. However, a new law passed in the Greek parliament will require all installations larger than 400 kW to be remotely controlled to allow for varying production.
To address this, Greece launched a 1 GW auction for storage projects last year. However, Pospief's secretary-general, Petros Tsikouras, argues that it was aimed in the wrong direction:
It took the government four years to introduce an energy storage framework, and when it did, it only allowed subsidized "front of the meter" energy storage systems. In contrast, Pospief is urging the government to open the energy storage market to "behind the meter" storage systems installed without subsidies. There is a strong investor appetite for such systems in Greece. The commercial argument exists since these systems can participate in the country's balancing services market," said Tsikouras. "Here lies the main problem. The government has delayed the energy storage framework to give enough time for gas plants to reap the benefits of the balancing services market. Eventually, it will give in to pressure and allow the construction of 'behind the meter' energy storage as well. Until then, the balancing services market will be dominated by gas plants that can flexibly adjust their production as they wish."
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Batteries Are Making Strong Advances in California
In relation to the previous news and last edition, we return to the case of California. This time, it was not 6 GW of power, but 7 GW of power coming from battery storage.
In his post, Gavin Mooney recalls that five years ago, batteries set a record of 120 MW. Now, in recent weeks, they have become a key component for storing cheap solar energy and shifting it to periods of higher demand in the evening.
On April 30, gas cycles remained the largest source of energy at sunset. However, batteries managed to avoid imports for a couple of hours until 9:10 PM.
Despite already having an installed capacity of 10.3 GW, an additional 3.8 GW is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2024. California leads the way in installed battery capacity, but it is estimated that 52 GW will be needed by 2045 to achieve carbon-free generation.
Finally, solar power also set new records, as a couple of weeks ago, it reached a new production peak of 18.54 GW.
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Battle of Regulations: IRA vs. NZIA
Interesting post by Kiko Maza, a renewable energy consultant. Kiko highlights two news stories that speak for themselves: at the moment, it seems that the regulatory battle is being won by the United States' "Inflation Reduction Act”. The “Net Zero Industry Act” has not been able to reverse the situation.
In the United States, the "Inflation Reduction Act" attracts local manufacturing, as is the case with First Solar. In Solarletter #6, we discussed this in more detail and how the new regulation is drawing foreign investment into the country for local manufacturing.
On the other hand, we discussed the "Made in Europe" situation in Solarletter #11, where the low prices of modules produced in China put European manufacturers between a rock and a hard place.
While the IRA was signed in August 2022 by Joe Biden, the NZIA had to wait until April 2024 to be approved. Is the cure arriving too late? Is it still possible to recover the made in Europe?
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Step Back in Romania by Two Chinese Module Manufacturers
In the modules section, we have an interesting piece of news from the Períodico de la Energía, by Ramon Roca. For the first time, two Chinese module manufacturers have decided to withdraw from a tender to avoid being investigated for the subsidies they receive from the Beijing government.
Pressure on Chinese solar manufacturers is becoming evident. The European Commission has noted that two companies have withdrawn from a public procurement procedure for the construction of a photovoltaic park in Romania. The companies involved are ENEVO, which includes LONGi Solar Technologie GmbH, and Shanghai Electric UK Co. Ltd. along with Shanghai Electric Hong Kong International Engineering Co. Ltd.
The withdrawal follows the European Commission's announcement on April 3, 2024, about the opening of an investigation under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation. As a result of this withdrawal, the Commission will close the investigation.
These investigations are related to a procedure carried out by a Romanian contracting entity (Societatea PARC FOTOVOLTAIC ROVINARI EST SA) for the design, construction, and operation of a photovoltaic park in Romania with a capacity of 454.97 MW, partially funded by the European Union. The estimated value of the contract is approximately 375 million euros. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated:
"Solar energy is vital for Europe's economic security. We are investing massively in the installation of solar panels to reduce our carbon emissions and energy bills, but this should not come at the expense of our energy security, industrial competitiveness, and European jobs. The Foreign Subsidies Regulation ensures that foreign companies participating in the European economy do so respecting our rules on fair competition and transparency."
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Edition´s microtip
In today's edition, we're diving into something more technical, which is generally more interesting (at least to me) but also takes a bit more time. Fortunately, Monday was a holiday in Germany :D. In Solarletter #12, we already talked about string fuses and the DC part, so this time we're moving to the AC side and protections for inverters.
To summarize a bit, protection is meant to safeguard the cable/circuit connected to it. Cables, depending on the current flowing through them, have a load curve, beyond which they will get damaged. This curve is known as "I²t" and shows the thermal capacity of the cable.
Fuses also have their characteristic curve, upon which they would disconnect the respective circuit (circuit breakers have them too, but we'll talk about those in future editions, so don't forget to subscribe if you haven't yet).
In the graph above, you can see the nominal load current (Ib), the fuse curve, and the cable curve. The fuse curve should be to the left of the cable curve, which means that as the current increases, the protection will always trip before the overcurrent affects the cable.
To ensure the correct selection of a fuse, we need to consider the following conditions:
Condition 1: The nominal current of the fuse (In) has to be above the nominal current of the load (Ib), but below the maximum current of the cable (IZ).
Condition 2: The melting current of the fuse (If) must be less than or equal to the maximum current the conductor can handle (IZ) increased by 45%:
Note: In the case of "g" type fuses with a nominal current greater than 16 A, we have If = 1.6 x In.
The above conditions will help determine the nominal current of the fuse (In). Additionally, we need to check other characteristics of the fuse such as:
The short-circuit breaking capacity of the fuse should be greater than the maximum short-circuit current at the point of installation (Isc).
The nominal voltage of the fuse should be valid (above) the nominal voltage of the circuit.
If you want to delve deeper, here’s an interesting video by Juan Alberto Melchor, where he explains each point in detail (sorry, but it is in spanish, anyway, graphs and formulas are easy to understand):
That concludes the edition. I hope you enjoyed and it made your coffee break, public transportation ride, or nap more enjoyable. If you have any suggestions, recommendations, or comments, feel free to reply to this email.
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Sunny Regards!
Great analysis Imanol!